Food (on the run?) for thought about the mobile Internet…

As the cellular data, WLAN and WiMAX networks continue to proliferate, the Internet will eventually be dominated by mobile Internet devices. Even if these devices continue to use some form of circuit switched communications for voice connections, their Internet access will be these wireless access networks. How soon will the tipping point be, when the domination of wireless devices connected to the Internet begins? What will the significance be?

First, let’s look at what we mean by ‘mobile’ There are some generally agreed ranges of mobility. Something like moving around the apartment or your average sized house is often called portability, but does count as mobile. Then there’s lugging a laptop with the screen open down the hall or across the quad, or walking into a wall, a tree, or falling down a staircase while operating your Nokia 800 series. This is called nomadic, where we sit for a bit, move to the next class or meeting, then sit for a bit more. Then there’s walking or running or even riding a bike a ‘long’ distance… that’s pedestrian mobility. Then there’s driving a car, riding a train, or riding in a plane, which is high speed mobility. So the entire range of mobility is lumped together when tallying mobile Internet devices.

Second, what do we mean by ‘dominated’. Well, one idea might be simply the largest raw number. Another might be aggregate bandwidth being used by the mobile class of devices. Another might be the number of actively used IPv4 or IPv6 addresses (regardless if they are NATed or not) Still another might be the class of Internet device yielding the greatest revenue to all access providers. Domination could be defined by the class of device placing the largest demands on the Internet, or the class producing the most traffic, most flows and so on.

Also, when we say dominated, do we mean a condition that remains true once reached? That is, could the mobile device dominate the Internet at one point in time, then loose ground to fixed devices again?

Some predictions by Googlaureats back in early naughties pegged the number of MIDs (mobile Internet devices) to cross the wired already by now… or at least by 2010. So why hasn’t it happened yet?

As China starts to ramp up, it has created a significant factor in this equation. Also, the high price of a vacation to Europe with the iPhone switched on has slowed things down a bit. Ok, to be a little teensy bit more fair, data roaming plans are not yet cheap on any phone. For example going back to the China connection, wired access is much more affordable. And don’t you love these plans that say ‘unlimited data’ but really mean ‘unlimited only if you are not serious about your Internet use.’ Speaking of serious, the industry is still working on getting wireless speeds up to the point where it’s not noticeable if you are wired or wireless. So there are some of the many reasons why MIDs aren’t yet dominating.